What are the Russians’ goals to turn to Afghanistan?
Written by Razaq Mamoon
Translated by Amin Wahidi
Preparations for sending Russian armaments* to Afghanistan by Government of President Medvedev is beyond reality though, but strategically it can be counted as the repetition of Russian Federation’s action in Kavkaz region and Ukraine.
Such unexpected accession of Karzai’s anti Russian government with Russia the country that was sadly witnessing the ongoing changes in Afghanistan in the recent years, is a new drama in which both sides have shown satisfactory based on their mutual interests.
In the new diplomacy, we can see the new feature of Russia (after the breakdown of USSR) clearer and more transparent than any time before.
Russia, the country that at least in the passed year, fearing the rapid influence of the western countries in general and Georgian Government in special, has separated the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions of Georgia of course to revenge the unilateral independence of Kosovo from Serbia.
As a too – late - reaction this measure was taken against gathering of the western countries for unilateral independence declaration of Kosovo from Serbia when they had ignored Russian then.
In another front, to pressure the European energy artery, Russia choked Ukraine government several times.
Now it is the turn for Afghanistan, a country that has been playground for the games of countries addicted to energy potentials. Russia never forgets that, before these countries referring to Afghanistan, at least in one century Afghanistan used to be known as a Russian suburb. And now when the never ending regional game has reached into a new level, the Russian Federation is never ready to lose the share in Afghanistan which it has always thought about.
In order to obtain satisfactory of the American government the post – Taliban government in Afghanistan put in act anti Russian policies in the first years, as a result of such tendency all Russian infrastructures were badly damaged, and half done reconstruction projects and installations remaining from Russian time were totally stopped throughout the country.
Tens of productive corporations were being sold out to the investors coming from west under the title of moving towards free market, and tens of thousands of people working in these installations lost their jobs and turned to poverty.
In the first three to four years of the new government, the economical – political dealer organizations have accelerated the damages of what all Made in Russia things existed in the country and the main reasons for temporary achievement of this campaign were two things;
One:
Russia’s involvement in its internal problems which needed time to clear accounts with fifteen former USSR republics that are to some extend already applying western capitalism models on their trade systems and industrial products.
This situation kept Russia busy within itself and the efforts it made were to keep its regions of interest far from capitalism and to be cautious about the enforcement of NATO near its territory.
Written by Razaq Mamoon
Translated by Amin Wahidi
Preparations for sending Russian armaments* to Afghanistan by Government of President Medvedev is beyond reality though, but strategically it can be counted as the repetition of Russian Federation’s action in Kavkaz region and Ukraine.
Such unexpected accession of Karzai’s anti Russian government with Russia the country that was sadly witnessing the ongoing changes in Afghanistan in the recent years, is a new drama in which both sides have shown satisfactory based on their mutual interests.
In the new diplomacy, we can see the new feature of Russia (after the breakdown of USSR) clearer and more transparent than any time before.
Russia, the country that at least in the passed year, fearing the rapid influence of the western countries in general and Georgian Government in special, has separated the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions of Georgia of course to revenge the unilateral independence of Kosovo from Serbia.
As a too – late - reaction this measure was taken against gathering of the western countries for unilateral independence declaration of Kosovo from Serbia when they had ignored Russian then.
In another front, to pressure the European energy artery, Russia choked Ukraine government several times.
Now it is the turn for Afghanistan, a country that has been playground for the games of countries addicted to energy potentials. Russia never forgets that, before these countries referring to Afghanistan, at least in one century Afghanistan used to be known as a Russian suburb. And now when the never ending regional game has reached into a new level, the Russian Federation is never ready to lose the share in Afghanistan which it has always thought about.
In order to obtain satisfactory of the American government the post – Taliban government in Afghanistan put in act anti Russian policies in the first years, as a result of such tendency all Russian infrastructures were badly damaged, and half done reconstruction projects and installations remaining from Russian time were totally stopped throughout the country.
Tens of productive corporations were being sold out to the investors coming from west under the title of moving towards free market, and tens of thousands of people working in these installations lost their jobs and turned to poverty.
In the first three to four years of the new government, the economical – political dealer organizations have accelerated the damages of what all Made in Russia things existed in the country and the main reasons for temporary achievement of this campaign were two things;
One:
Russia’s involvement in its internal problems which needed time to clear accounts with fifteen former USSR republics that are to some extend already applying western capitalism models on their trade systems and industrial products.
This situation kept Russia busy within itself and the efforts it made were to keep its regions of interest far from capitalism and to be cautious about the enforcement of NATO near its territory.
Two:
Russia was doubtful so far of the American – led global campaign against the terrorism and regional game would reach to its dead-end and this campaign would weaken the military and economical ability of the warrior countries.
Now after seven years, Russian feels that the time has come and it can achieve both goals: first the European conquer on the Russia strategic regions and the process of early membership of Georgia and Ukraine in NATO has been practically stopped by Russia after applying the so called “Energy War”, while on the other hand the political - military crisis in Afghanistan has badly damaged he military and economical machinery of the western countries.
The governmental officials in Afghanistan have faced with many problems in all arenas. The western investment in this country not only could not build up capacity of the officials to handle the affairs independently and gain the public support, but day by day the government is losing control over major parts of the country.
The monster of extremism is getting stronger than ever before and nowadays the drug trafficking is done easier than any time in the past.
This condition makes the United States reluctant to the current Afghan officials as they have proved to be too insufficient to support the western policies in their country.
Now they are to find a new structure for the establishment of a stable and sufficient system, therefore nowadays they clearly criticize Karzai who has been once brought by them and imposed on people. Recently Karzai has been under harsh criticism of the western officials as well as the western media for insufficiency and being involved the corruption and the drug business.
Russia was doubtful so far of the American – led global campaign against the terrorism and regional game would reach to its dead-end and this campaign would weaken the military and economical ability of the warrior countries.
Now after seven years, Russian feels that the time has come and it can achieve both goals: first the European conquer on the Russia strategic regions and the process of early membership of Georgia and Ukraine in NATO has been practically stopped by Russia after applying the so called “Energy War”, while on the other hand the political - military crisis in Afghanistan has badly damaged he military and economical machinery of the western countries.
The governmental officials in Afghanistan have faced with many problems in all arenas. The western investment in this country not only could not build up capacity of the officials to handle the affairs independently and gain the public support, but day by day the government is losing control over major parts of the country.
The monster of extremism is getting stronger than ever before and nowadays the drug trafficking is done easier than any time in the past.
This condition makes the United States reluctant to the current Afghan officials as they have proved to be too insufficient to support the western policies in their country.
Now they are to find a new structure for the establishment of a stable and sufficient system, therefore nowadays they clearly criticize Karzai who has been once brought by them and imposed on people. Recently Karzai has been under harsh criticism of the western officials as well as the western media for insufficiency and being involved the corruption and the drug business.
In strategic balances and equations, it is something expected, how the western powers take position nowadays; whenever the interests countries differ they easily shuffle down the political formulas sometime even into vice versa.
Based on this fact, now is the time for Russia and Karzai government to shake hands of friendship based on their mutual interests.
The interesting point here is the comparison of Russian Federation and Afghanistan in the current time as the needs, chances and opportunities of both sides do not seem to be the same.
Russia, throwing its creel in the south of the region this time, feels strong enough to handle the situation and take the opportunities while the Afghan government in contrast does not have a good condition. It loses the support of western allies day after day so it is a critical situation that obliges Afghanistan look for Russia’s help and support.
Considering the chain of changes in Afghanistan and in the region such as; increase of security threats, economic crisis and rapid growth of corruption the Afghan Administration, forming of regional groupings in the region to encounter unilateral dominance of United States and NATO in the region, end of republicans power in the United States and dead-end of Campaign against the terror, the Afghan Administration has lost time and missed many opportunities.
As a matter of fact, Russia would shake a weak hand that is in need for friendship.
Based on this fact, now is the time for Russia and Karzai government to shake hands of friendship based on their mutual interests.
The interesting point here is the comparison of Russian Federation and Afghanistan in the current time as the needs, chances and opportunities of both sides do not seem to be the same.
Russia, throwing its creel in the south of the region this time, feels strong enough to handle the situation and take the opportunities while the Afghan government in contrast does not have a good condition. It loses the support of western allies day after day so it is a critical situation that obliges Afghanistan look for Russia’s help and support.
Considering the chain of changes in Afghanistan and in the region such as; increase of security threats, economic crisis and rapid growth of corruption the Afghan Administration, forming of regional groupings in the region to encounter unilateral dominance of United States and NATO in the region, end of republicans power in the United States and dead-end of Campaign against the terror, the Afghan Administration has lost time and missed many opportunities.
As a matter of fact, Russia would shake a weak hand that is in need for friendship.
What have made Russia to turn towards Afghanistan in this important time?
It is not a new thing that American and NATO are blocked in a maelstrom where the former USSR was also collapsed in it. Right now it may not be important either, which of the poles made mistakes in the Afghanistan maelstrom in the past. The important point here is that Russia is becoming active to get the opportunities that it lost through two past decades. It is exactly the golden chance that Russia was looking for within the years of silence of diplomacy in Afghanistan.
We can categorize these opportunities as the following;
One:
There is no fear and panic for Russia if the war continues and crisis increase in Afghanistan, for sure there is nothing for Russia to lose, but instead the regional geography would turn in favor of Russia because of fear of expansion of extremism and terrorism.
The war in Afghanistan has frightened the central Asian countries that are full of petroleum and gold mines. The countries that have been standing against Russian since 1990s but now fearing the fire of war in their vicinity, and the slightly march of western system towards their national interests therefore they need to a resort to rely on that could be only Russia in the region.
The temporary temptation of westernization in this region is cooled down; instead each of these countries tries to maintain their national interest along with nationalism sensations. In this case, Russia’s power and influence would again conquer this region, but this time peacefully and gently as fast as it was removed in the past.
Two:
The bargaining of Russia with NATO and the USA about rout of Russia through Central Asia for the NATO and Coalition logistical conveys to Afghanistan has brought another chance for Russia and this country would easily take enough advantages, as if “ strike when the iron is hot”.
Three:
Russia’s positive response to Karzai government regarding sending the Russian armaments the Afghan Army not only helps Russia’s treasury but it realizes the Russia’s repeated demand from Afghanistan that has been rejected or been ignored by the Afghan government in the past. This way, all half done projects and Russian infrastructures that were somehow stopped by the Afghan government in this period may begin again so that the Russian Federation would rehabilitate its lost position and interest in this country.
Afghanistan Development Bank run by a Russian company, was one of tens of Russian constructive and productive installations / organizations that were inactivated* by the Afghan government.
Four:
At the same time, Russian doesn’t want to be the only country in the region not benefiting from drug trafficking and narcotics business in Afghanistan, but it tries to have a share of benefits from this advantageous business; drug trafficking that exclusively pass through Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Turkey to the European market which now has not benefit for Russia which so far has been isolated from this trade.
Based on the facts mentioned above, coincidently with the power transformation from Republican George W. Bush to the Democrat Barack Obama, in a sudden move Russia expects to approach the Afghan Administration; the Administration that has lost the attention and kindness of the new administration of Democrats and needs a strong regional ally. This act of Russia has a clear message for Obama and that is;
The new US administration has to accept Russia as its regional associate in this regional game and would not take for granted its demands in the game of Afghanistan because President Obama has come on power based on the motto; “The Change we need”!
There is no fear and panic for Russia if the war continues and crisis increase in Afghanistan, for sure there is nothing for Russia to lose, but instead the regional geography would turn in favor of Russia because of fear of expansion of extremism and terrorism.
The war in Afghanistan has frightened the central Asian countries that are full of petroleum and gold mines. The countries that have been standing against Russian since 1990s but now fearing the fire of war in their vicinity, and the slightly march of western system towards their national interests therefore they need to a resort to rely on that could be only Russia in the region.
The temporary temptation of westernization in this region is cooled down; instead each of these countries tries to maintain their national interest along with nationalism sensations. In this case, Russia’s power and influence would again conquer this region, but this time peacefully and gently as fast as it was removed in the past.
Two:
The bargaining of Russia with NATO and the USA about rout of Russia through Central Asia for the NATO and Coalition logistical conveys to Afghanistan has brought another chance for Russia and this country would easily take enough advantages, as if “ strike when the iron is hot”.
Three:
Russia’s positive response to Karzai government regarding sending the Russian armaments the Afghan Army not only helps Russia’s treasury but it realizes the Russia’s repeated demand from Afghanistan that has been rejected or been ignored by the Afghan government in the past. This way, all half done projects and Russian infrastructures that were somehow stopped by the Afghan government in this period may begin again so that the Russian Federation would rehabilitate its lost position and interest in this country.
Afghanistan Development Bank run by a Russian company, was one of tens of Russian constructive and productive installations / organizations that were inactivated* by the Afghan government.
Four:
At the same time, Russian doesn’t want to be the only country in the region not benefiting from drug trafficking and narcotics business in Afghanistan, but it tries to have a share of benefits from this advantageous business; drug trafficking that exclusively pass through Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Turkey to the European market which now has not benefit for Russia which so far has been isolated from this trade.
Based on the facts mentioned above, coincidently with the power transformation from Republican George W. Bush to the Democrat Barack Obama, in a sudden move Russia expects to approach the Afghan Administration; the Administration that has lost the attention and kindness of the new administration of Democrats and needs a strong regional ally. This act of Russia has a clear message for Obama and that is;
The new US administration has to accept Russia as its regional associate in this regional game and would not take for granted its demands in the game of Afghanistan because President Obama has come on power based on the motto; “The Change we need”!
No comments:
Post a Comment